Good evening
Bitcoin bulls push the month-end crash scenario to the margins
The market pricing a Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by September's end drops -24pp to 78%, the single largest move in the dataset on $35,840 in 24-hour volume against a $364,658 total pool, with 16.3 days remaining. Bitcoin is up +2.47% on the day, pushing traders to reassess the downside scenario even as the $82,500 upside market simultaneously surges +16pp to 48%.
Daily Pick
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
Republicans currently hold the Senate majority and Democrats flipped the House in 2026, making this a split-Congress outcome, the specific combination this market requires. Generic split-control outcomes are plausible but this exact configuration (R Senate, D House) competes against three other permutations (R-R, D-D, D-R). The 7-day price drift downward and thin recent volume suggest positioning has softened on this outcome, and with elections still weeks away, uncertainty remains high across all four scenarios.