Field Construction: 10 Wallets, 3 Catalysts, $73K of Conviction

The market ("Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?") opened on August 5, 2025 and resolved on March 4, 2026 when Trump's nomination message hit the Senate. Warsh-YES traded between 6.5¢ and 99.65¢ along the way, in three distinct phases driven by three named news events. The cohort bought through all three. They didn't get the price the rest of the market eventually saw; they got it earlier, in pieces, across each catalyst.

The combined pre-announcement entry was 208,948 shares for $73,078 of cost basis. Held passively to settlement, that position would have returned roughly $135K. None of these wallets held passively. Two of the four largest were already running the trade at scale, with positions established before our visible window and unwound on the announcement spike or at resolution.

The interesting part isn't that they were early. Most weren't. The interesting part is they read each catalyst, sized in immediately, and didn't get shaken out by the chop between them.

The three windows

The market's life splits into three flow windows, each with a different cast and a different volume:

The $1.59M of post-announcement flow was a different set of wallets buying the certainty trade for redemption. The pre-announcement $73K is what's worth understanding. That money bought into uncertainty.

The price, the catalysts, the buys

Three news events repriced Warsh-YES between August and the announcement:

December 12, 2025. Trump told the Wall Street Journal that Warsh was "at the top" of his list, after a December 10 White House interview. Polymarket had Hassett at 73%; the WSJ story moved Warsh from ~14¢ to 36¢ within hours.

January 16, 2026. Trump publicly said he was inclined to keep Hassett at NEC ("I would lose you"), effectively eliminating Hassett from the field. Warsh-YES went from 43¢ to 62¢ over the next few days.

January 30, 2026. Bloomberg and CNN reported overnight that Trump had decided on Warsh; the announcement came Friday morning. Warsh-YES gapped 31¢ → 63¢ overnight, then 63¢ → 99.65¢ that morning. The price held above 95¢ through resolution five weeks later.

The cohort's pre-announcement activity tracks the catalysts closely. Almost no buying through the August-November flat period. A burst on and right after Dec 12. The biggest single entry of the period (76K shares from one wallet at 32¢) came on December 30, during a late-December lull. Heavy activity around the Hassett-out repricing on Jan 16, and a final wave on the late-January pullback when the market briefly faded back to 25¢.

Four wallets, four playbooks

Four wallets drove most of the pre-announcement cost basis. Each played the catalysts differently.

0x9648…6825 made the largest single pre-announcement entry of any wallet: 76K shares at 32¢ on December 30, during the lull between the WSJ story and Hassett's exit. They scaled in further at 39-61¢ in mid-January, then sold 87K shares at 43-50¢ on the late-January fade, locking gains into volatility. Bought 99K, sold 92K, kept 6.6K to settlement. P&L +$17.4K. They traded the move, not the position.

0x9d84…1344 built a position across every phase. A token entry on November 25, a small add on December 12 right after the WSJ news, then serious accumulation in the first week of January (42K shares at 35-40¢ across three days). They added on Jan 16 at 50¢ and again on Jan 30 at 92-95¢. They never stopped buying as prices ran. On resolution day, March 4, they sold 711K shares at 99.8¢. The 715K-vs-159K sell-vs-buy gap within our window implies ~556K shares of prior long established before our trade history begins. +$582K within-window P&L.

0xd1ac…08d5 read the December 12 WSJ catalyst within hours. First buy on December 16 (four days after the WSJ story) for 35K shares at 33¢ across four trades that afternoon. Held to settlement and added another 43K post-announcement at 94¢. Net 76,705 shares retained, ~$25K total profit on $51.9K total cost basis, with ~$22K of that profit from the pre-announcement entry alone. The chase-in at 94¢ is the wrinkle: this wallet got the entry right, then added on the news like everyone else.

0x7744…999e waited for the late-January dip. First buy on January 23, after Warsh-YES had faded from 62¢ to ~30¢ post-Hassett-out. Bought 17K shares at 26-30¢ over three days. Sold 260K shares at 99.7¢ on January 30. Same archetype as 0x9d84, with a much larger pre-window position unwound on the announcement spike. +$365K within-window P&L.

Four different books, four ways of managing afterward. But the pre-announcement positioning converged on three windows: right after Dec 12, the lull around Dec 30, and the late-January post-Hassett-out fade. Three repricings, three opportunities to size in.

What to watch for in the next multi-candidate race

Two patterns from this cohort, extractable as heuristics: